Members and Friends:
Hope you are well and planning your COVID-19 vaccine appointments.
As always, all of the linked documents below can be found on our website at www.usmcocma.org/resources.
While the President’s nominees for Cabinet and other senior positions wind their way through the Congressional approval process, conjecture continues on the direction(s) trade policy will take and the potential impact on friends and adversaries. We have included some initial reports in our previous updates. However, much additional information has come forward in the past few weeks and we will cover it here.
The overall update will be divided into two parts, the first part on Mexico below and a following one next week on other allies and adversaries.
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First, on the U.S. Relations with Mexico front, the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute has been a reliable source of timely and detailed reports. They have just published a series under the title “Re-Building a Complex Partnership: The Outlook for U.S.-Mexico Relations under the Biden Administration.” Below is our commentary on three of the nine policy pieces. In general, the goal of the series was to “to draw together the insights of a number of leading experts on the bilateral relationship to both analyze the current moment in the bilateral relationship and to identify potential paths forward.”
In the first piece, “From Trump to Biden: Mexican Public Opinion and AMLO’s Rhetoric,” the conversation revolves around three charts showing the changing opinion of the Mexican public to U.S. Presidents, the U.S.-Mexico relationship, and the United States in general from 2001 to 2020. Also part of the discussion is the relationship of AMLO to President Trump and, now, President Biden. As far as the Mexican public is concerned, the opinions have been generally positive – except for the period when Trump was President. Additionally, “From 2019 to 2020, Mexican public opinion about the U.S.-Mexico relationship changed significantly, in a positive direction, and the polls also showed positive changes in Mexicans' opinions about the United States during that time." Many of the opinions, “approve” or “disapprove,” had a lot to do with who was President of Mexico and the U.S. at the time – and how they got along (or didn’t).
In the second piece, “A Reset in U.S.-Mexico Relations Also Requires Re-Engagement on Global and Regional Issues,” the feeling is that the Biden Administration will quickly seek to revert the negative effects of President Trump’s past four years and will also likely attempt to reset key bilateral relations with allies and partners. Although there are many opportunities available, a forward-leaning and deeper and wider U.S.-Mexico regional and global dialogue may be unlikely in the coming months and years as a Biden-López Obrador reboot will not be easy, notwithstanding the best intentions in Washington and the deliberate efforts of some in the Mexican government. The piece provides several policy recommendations.
The third piece, “Fulfilling North America's Promise,” contains policy recommendations allowing the leaders of all three countries to take advantage of President Biden’s arrival to rebuild confidence and establish cooperative work agendas on key economic and security issues facing North America. Foremost, they should agree to convene a North America Leaders’ Summit in the year ahead to develop an agenda to discuss and manage mutual issues such as trade, investment, jobs, competitiveness, homeland security, the environment, migration, illegal drugs, pandemics, and terrorism. According to the report, none of the three countries can ignore the effect of geographic location, but all can benefit by giving more priority attention to continental relationships.
On February 9 the Mexico Institute discussed via webinar a recent report from Signos Vitales entitled “Mexico and United States: From Subordination to Expectation.” In the Introduction the authors state, “Despite the grievousness with which this year treated the entire planet´s population, the arrival of Joe Biden to the White House, after a tough and close electoral contest, envisions a closing and a beginning of the year that encourages maintaining the hopes for progress in solving shared problems.” Although the report covers aspects of U.S. “meddling” in Mexican politics, immigration policy, and security policy, it goes on to cover issue areas where attention in needed – energy, climate change, trade, and women and gender equality.
The week before last the McAllen Economic Development Corporation and Interlink Trade Services did a webinar on “2021 Cross-Border Trade: Beyond COVID-19 and the Trump Administration,” which covered a wide range of topics including a review of USMCA affecting the auto industry; COVID-19 and the effect of essential and non-essential industries; Trump’s trade policies; and changes to expect under the Biden Administration.
The Congressional Research Service (CRS) released its report, “Mexico: Background and U.S. Relations,” on January 7. It updates previous reports done on an ongoing basis and provides an outlook for relations going forward with the Biden Administration.
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Reviewing all of the webinars and presented materials, key issue areas going forward with Mexico would be climate change, migration, energy, border issues, the environment, labor reform legislation and enforcement, water rights, and human rights.